In a drive to improve the care of patients suffering from long-term illnesses, NHS Scotland has embarked on an innovative research project with partners Trustmarque and KenSci, to create a trial risk prediction platform which aims to help predict pulmonary risk and improve care for patients suffering from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).

More than 1.2 million people, or 4.5 percent of adults over age 40, are diagnosed with COPD in the UK, and the prevalence is rising. As the fourth leading cause of death in the UK, it is responsible for nearly 30,000 deaths per year.

Trustmarque and KenSci, a healthcare risk prediction platform provider, will work together to create the risk prediction platform. It will be tested using anonymised data across 2.1 million patients based in Glasgow and includes a physician decision support solution and COPD predictions.

An anonymised data set was provided by the NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde Safe Haven under a data processing agreement. This captured all NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde patients admitted via A&E with COPD over the past four years. The use of modern machine learning aims to help NHS Scotland better identify which patients are at the highest risk of pulmonary diseases. This will support NHS Scotland’s strategy to enable health teams to better target the best possible care and treatments for patients, helping them to reduce time in A&E, length of stay and to remain in the community rather than be admitted to hospital for prolonged periods of time.

The risk prediction platform, built on Microsoft’s Azure and Power BI, involves detecting and predicting clinical deterioration, such as acute exacerbations of COPD, which are among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality and healthcare expense. In addition, if proved, the approach will enable hospitals across Scotland to predict patterns in COPD admissions and estimate their length of stay, helping them to better manage resources.

Tracey Wilson NHS Scotland Open Innovation Project Manager:

“This open innovation competition is funded by Scottish Government and run by NHS Scotland, in conjunction with Innovate UK as part of its Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI) mechanism to fund UK business innovation. Open innovation is an established approach used globally to encourage organisations to collaborate to develop solutions to defined challenges.

The Scottish Government has set out the need for transformational change in the way that NHS Scotland meets citizen’s health and social care needs by 2020 and beyond. In wishing to deliver these transformational changes, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde has put itself forward to be a lead test bed service for solutions that once evaluated can be spread to other clinical areas.

The aim of this project is to develop data analytics that will enable clinicians to make informed, safe and timely decisions. Improved provision of critical data should enable early decision-making on treatment and disposition. It should enhance patient flow, satisfaction and, potentially outcomes.

The clinical focus is the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for patients in emergency care departments. The competition has two phases; phase 1 showed the technical feasibility of the proposed innovations from five successful applicants. Phase 2 will see the two most promising projects develop and evaluate their prototypes.”

Andrew Carr, Managing Director, at Trustmarque, said:

“This innovative project will test and demonstrate how modern data technology can enhance patients’ healthcare journeys. Working in partnership with innovative organisations, such as KenSci, to enable our customers to simplify their IT and day-to-day processes is at the heart of what we do and we are delighted our involvement may result in NHS Scotland delivering better quality care at a lower cost.”

Ankur Teredesai, Chief Technology Officer, KenSci, added:

“We are delighted to be chosen by NHS Scotland as a partner in developing the solution to predict COPD risk, and believe this is the first step towards utilising data to provide patients with better care and clinical outcomes in this area. This partnership strengthens KenSci’s vision of applying data science to fight the world’s deadliest healthcare issues.

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About KenSci

KenSci is the world’s first vertically integrated machine learning platform for healthcare, making it more proactive, coordinated and accountable, fast. KenSci’s platform is engineered to ingest, transform and integrate healthcare data across clinical, claims, and patient generated sources. A library of more than 180 prebuilt models and modular solutions for clinical and operational risk prediction enable customers to ask and answer harder questions faster, with average deployment taking ten weeks and ROI visibility achieved in 90 days. KenSci was formed at University of Washington’s Center for Data Science at UW Tacoma and designed on the cloud with help from Microsoft’s Azure4Research grant program. KenSci is headquartered in Seattle, with offices in Dallas, Singapore and Hyderabad. For more information, visit